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Comments: Farzad: I expect you to have a more realistic perspective, being involved with US industry and travel to most places in the world. There will be a small amount of manufacturing jobs coming back, but Bringing lot of manufacturing jobs to US is a pipe dream and nothing more. There are several reasons; 10 High labor cost, 2) Lack of labor training, 3) supply chain. How can you make such products competitive? And if they are targeting US market only, they better shut them down before they start. Many part of the world has become anti USA, and those are not only hostile countries. Places like Canada, Australia, Europe. It is simply amazing how things change so quickly. Two places that they are not hostile, Iran and Israel. It is a shame that Iran is still under sanction, and Israel is too small!!!, otherwise Trump crazy idea may has had a chance!!
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Comments: Saeid, I am more confident on US economy. China is a bad news and has been a bad news and has been known that since 2014. Sooner or later we had to deal with them or otherwise simply let them loose to pass us by. The latter one not accepted by anyone. Is there one way to get there? NO. Did other approach work? NO, and we were not disciplined on some of the stuff we instituted. I think with the ongoing negotiations, bringing manufacturing in, removal of Trade Barriers, and fair trade we have a chance. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs showed optimism today. And Lastly, he does consult with Bill Clinton believe it or not which in my opinion was one of the greatest presidents in recent 1/2 century. He was blackmailed by the Neocons unfortunately. Which was very nasty leading to his impeachment. Supreme Court won the election for the Neocons in 2000 depriving Al Gore from winning.
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Comments: I am really concerned about the future of USA. It is very much looking like a super power falling apart. In the case of Russia, USA took over as the sole super power. For the most part, thigs actually worked better. This time around, things are different. It seems China is the obvious choice, but you can not call them super power, at least military wise. I do not think, they rely too much on USA market as before. USA has only about 4% of world population. Key is Europe, India, and Japan. If China offer them a good deal, they would rather deal with China than a crazy admin in USA.
Comments: His ultimate goal. Will it happen? It would be very difficult. Trump's Tax Vision: No Federal Income Tax Under $150K
Comments: In conclusion, I do not believe things will change in Iran much, even with the deal being signed. Dollar will be a little cheaper in short term, prices also. But Iran continue to have problem long term as long as regime is in power. For things to change for better, regime must be toppled by Iranian people. There is no other way. I believe, despite all the damages inflicted by mullahs, Iran still has potential to make a come back.
Comments: It seems deal between US/IRI is close. I am saying this with certainty since both sides need it. IRI does not have any other choice. In fact, they view this as a god given chance to rescue them of the alternative, which is regime change. It seems, Trump after all the fuss and tearing down the original deal, now accept it!! It is because, this is his only chance to say, I did some thing. But how much sanction relief will be offered? I believe, IRI will be allowed to sell oil. Will that change regime behavior? Obviously, there are not much left of Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Palestine. The only party left are Huthies in Yemen. will IRI resort to provide them assistance instead of spending the money to improve domestic programs to make life easier for people. There are so many shortcomings in Iran, that they will not be able to address just with oil revenue. They need foreign investment. I believe, IRI does not have the trust of foreign community to start their investment.
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Comments: Yeah agree. As I said these tariffs are just there as a tool for the countries to negotiate "trade deficits" and removal of "trade barriers". So as Bassnet said there will most likely be no tariffs and if any, it is balanced with removal of trade barriers and improving trade deficit. This will translate to exactly what you alluded to with U.S. savings in line with U.S. investments. Simple math. The immediate relief is cutting the interest rate. 1/3 of the tax we pay goes to paying the interest on the debt. And that's really bad.
Comments: With all the economical experts on hand in U.S, one wonder what the fuck, Trump is doing. It is like letting a plumber, do a surgery on you. Economy is a science, you can not do it with negotiation. Steve H. Hanke is a professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University and the author, with Leland Yeager, of Capital, Interest, and Waiting. Caleb Hofmann is a research scholar at the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
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