Overdue quake 'could kill a million in Tehran'

The experts say a major earthquake in Iran's sprawling capital Tehran is overdue - and at least one local professor says when it comes, it could kill 1.4 million people and wreck 60 per cent of the city.

In the Tehran region, tremors with a strength of seven or higher on the Richter scale occur on average every 158 years, Nateghi said. The last one was in 1830 - giving a long time for pressure to build up.

"When the period is longer, it means a higher magnitude earthquake can happen - which is what is causing worries about Tehran." The scenario of such a quake put forward in a study published by Nateghi goes like this: "About 640,000 residences out of 1.1 million seem (likely) to suffer collapse or serious damage, with 1.45 million killed and 4.33 million suffering injuries."

"The Japanese did a study on Tehran and they indicated about 400,000 deaths," Nateghi said. "I think this is a low number." Foremost in the minds of the staff at his institute is the knowledge that people are not killed directly by earthquakes, but by collapsing buildings or by fires started by ruptured electricity cables or gas pipes. Most buildings are not designed according to seismic load conditions, or if they are, usually supervision is very bad."