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19,611 Entries
Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:

My prediction: Michigan will go to Harris, Wisconsin is the  state that will win the election for the 47th president and I have no clue which way Wisconsin will go. It could just be a handful of votes.

In 2000, 553 votes got GWB/Cheney to the office. 


Shahin 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
Of course its my gut. Sorry I was not clear about it


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:

In his most recent column for The New York Times (NYT), Nate Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight but is no longer affiliated, has essentially said "50-50 is the only responsible forecast,".


Nate claims that no one can any longer predict this election, and those who do, do it based on bias or guts feeling. He also wrote that his "gut says Trump. But that’s just my gut, I can’t back it with any data.”


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:

Here is the latest from Polymarket betting site. 60 to 40.   Trending Harris’ way.  Their number was like 67/33 on Oct 30.  

https://polymarket.com/

[IMG-2192]


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
On the betting front here is Kalshi’s latest.   Trending in Harris’ favor.  On October 30, the spread was 65/35 in favor of trump.

[IMG-2191]


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:

Real Clear Polling which averages all the polling, publishes the latest every hour.  All of these numbers are within the margin of errors. The only thing it indicates is which way things trending, still within the margin of error. 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/


[IMG-2189]


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
I am not thinking anything.. I just posted the consensus from progressive abc affiliate, FiveThirtyEight published.  Have no prediction or fortune telling skills.  Have no clue what will happen.


Shahin 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
Georgia & NC are much closer than you think and so is Pennsylvania. By midnight our time Tuesday night you will know if dems can hold the 3 states and if they can flip NC, Georgia. If this does not happen, I will be very nervous waiting for NV & AZ. Regardless, by midnight, Trump will come put and claim that he has won


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
This is the consensus on where election stands posted by abc. The purple states are up for grabs. As I said Harris needs all 3 PA, Wi, Mi to win. Trump needs one of those.
 
Nevada is irrelevant for both if above is true. Unless New Hampshire flips then Nevada can come to Trump's rescue. Again Kamala winning all the rust belts, she will become the president.
 
My prediction is it will come down to Wisconsin.
 


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
https://youtu.be/do5Djba_W7s?si=UxE4m3E2d9tVl15e


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
خوشم‌ میاد هیچ کسی شهوتی نمیشه
https://youtu.be/Hc9mYHwWjzs?si=9c1dXqtu3hiMmg4P


Farzad 
Nov 2, 2024

Comments:
فکر کنم تازه فهمیدن چه خواری ازشون گاییده شد

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/2/khamenei-warns-israel-us-of-crushing-response-for-actions-against-iran


Cyruss 
Nov 1, 2024

Comments:
Shahin, cousins?
Most probably, برادران مداح some how have become محرم with parastoo sisters of رسانه


Farzad 
Nov 1, 2024

Comments:
The reports out of Iran after Israeli attack is revealing some major setback for IRI.


Farzad 
Nov 1, 2024

Comments:
Shahin, the other thing about Governor / House/ Senate election is that the election result is not an aggregated result as opposed to presidential.

There are red states and blue states each with mix of dems and Reps representatives. Even during General Election.  In some elections the president may end up being from one party, but the Senate House governor majority may be from a different party.  

The voting scheme is different. 
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